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>TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
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WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5::00 AM ECT WED, OCT 19, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
...TAMMY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 556 SOUTHEAST OF ANGUILLA AND 637 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). . A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TAMMY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST PATH, TAMMY COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING ITS EVENTUAL PATH AND STRENGTH AT THIS TIME, RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMPACTS TO INCLUDE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS THAT COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND ROUGH SEAS ON SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING BY FRIDAY OR SOONER.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM TAMMY CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 12 MIDDAY TODAY OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
FORECASTER
LORNE SALMON